There have been some concerns raised about the Orioles’ 6.02 ERA (as of July 27) for the month of July. While I can understand these concerns, I tend to look at things a little differently.
The problem with ERA is that there are so many factors that affect it, especially over short periods of time. That’s one reason I prefer to look at other stats, particularly theoretical stats, such as one that I call True Performance ERA (yes, it is a borrowed name). TPE uses Component ERA, except my version adjusts hits and home runs based on batted ball data, and I make an adjustment on walks and strikeouts. The idea is that this formula will take out flukes such as poor fielding or “luck” impacting the number of hits allowed, as well as some other things that impact ERA.
Here is how the Orioles pitchers fare by month:
TPE – 5.01 / 5.09 / 4.52 / 5.10
ERA – 5.54 / 5.54 / 4.49 / 6.02
TPE indicates that things haven’t been quite as bad this month overall. In fact, take out the “contributions” of Russ Ortiz, and the July TPE drops to 4.72. Also, even with Ortiz, the staff’s BB% (11.1 > 10.1 > 9.2 > 9.1) and K% (14.2 > 14.4 > 16.9 > 16.4 [but 17.3 without Ortiz]) represent continued improvement.
I’m sure some are wondering what other factors have impacted actual ERA. These things have played a role:
HR/OFFB. It is pretty much accepted that pitchers typically don’t have much control over the percentage of flyballs that become home runs. Typically, you can expect to see a rate of about 11%. The Orioles rate by month is 14.1 > 12.6 > 13.4 > 16.5. Yes, this is the second straight month it has increased, but a rate of over 16% is extremely high. Lower that number to something closer to normal, and they would have allowed fewer HRs this month (11% = 22, compared to an actual total of 33). Fewer HRs would likely have lead to a lower ERA.
LOB%. The percentage of baserunners left on base. The typical league average is about 71% (both leagues are at exactly 71% in 2006). The Orioles by month – 68.4 > 68.9 > 72.5 > 67.0. In other words, 33% of all runners who reach base score – as opposed to a league average of 29%.
H%/BABIP. I track a stat I call H%, which is essentially the same as BABIP-A. H% represents the percentage of balls put in play that become hits. The Orioles by month: .298 > .296 > .297 > .327. This tells me that their combination of “luck” (variance), defense, and yes, pitching just hasn’t been all that great this month.
I’m sure some will look at the above and see excuses. I don’t intend for them to be looked at as such. Yes, the pitcher still plays a role in each of these.
The point of this post is that the rise in ERA isn’t nearly as bad as it appears to be at first glance.
MiLB Batted Ball Data
I’ve been asked a lot about minor league batted ball data. One recent question had to do with a pitcher’s ability to control whether a fly ball becomes a home run. The person who asked made the assumption that this applies to both major and minor league pitchers.
I have seen arguments that some pitchers have an ability to limit home runs on outfield fly balls, but I haven’t seen the evidence that “proves” it (this evidence may exist, I just haven’t seen it). For instance, a couple of people have pointed to Erik Bedard as one of these pitchers – pointing to his rates of 8.2 and 7.5% the previous two seasons. The problem here is that his rate is up to 11.7% this year (even though it has been down to 9.1 and 8.3 in June and July, respectively).
I will say that my gut tells me that eventually someone will be able to show that pitchers do have more control over this than what is currently believed.
The problem with the MLB/MiLB batted ball data discussion is that we are comparing Major League rates and expectancies to Minor League data. For instance, we know that 11% of all OFFBs become home runs, we know that 18.3% of all line drives become doubles (based on 2002 through 2005 data), but we don’t know how often these things occur within the various minor leagues. What we need is for someone to do that for each level and for each league.
The person that asked me the question was asking primarily about Astros farmhand Jason Hirsh – whom he thought had an ability to “miss bats.” The thing to do (in my mind) is to compare his stats to the stats for his team and league (PCL).(Hirsh/Team/League – team and league through Friday):
GB%: 39 / 47 / 46
FB%: 47 / 37 / 37
IFFB%: 28 / 20 / 20 (% of flyballs that become popups)
LD%: 13 / 16 / 17
MLB stats tell us that IFFB% and LD% are not easily controlled by pitchers. If that is true about minor league stats, then Hirsh may be in trouble – in that he can expect to start allowing more line drives and fewer popups. FWIW, I’ll give an educated guess that minor league pitchers (especially the good ones) have much more control over these than do ML pitchers. This would explain what would be his absurdly low (by MLB standards) HR/OFFB rate (3.8% compared to a PCL rate of 10.6%).
There are two other stats to compare:
BB%: 9.9 / 9.0 / 9.0
K%: 21.4 / 16.4 / 18.2
You have to love his K%, but should be a little worried about his BB%.
By the way, the MiLB data comes from what is now one of my favorite stat sites. (See the link to the right.)
Clutchiness
Thanks to the good folks at THT I have found yet another great blog – Clutchiness (see the link to the right). I’m not even going to try to explain how this new stat works. For one, I haven’t read enough about it to give a good explanation. Besides, he does a great job of explaining it. Do yourself a favor, take the time to read this – it is definitely good stuff.
By the way, let’s hope the Angels, Astros, and whatever other team that might be interested in Miguel Tejada doesn’t check out the link on the Orioles. And to think that the primary reason given for going after Tejada a few years ago by a prominent OH poster was his abilities in the clutch. Oh well, maybe that’s a fluke.
My Most Recent OH Article…
can be found here.
