What if I told you that I knew of a series of stats that could predict with 92% accuracy that a pitcher will finish with a sub 4.50 ERA? What if I told you the same stats could predict with 75% accuracy that a pitcher will finish with a sub 4.00 ERA? Would that pique your interest?
Let me back up. Someone at Orioles Hangout asked me what stats I look for in a pitcher. This is how I answered the question. After posting that I realized that I didn’t set the parameters. So I did some studying. These are the boundaries that I came up with:
Strikeout % (Strikeouts / Batters Faced) of at least 17%
K/BB (Strikeouts / Unintentional Walks) of at least 2.5
Groundball % ( Groundballs / Balls in Play) of at least 45%
Strike % (Strikes / Pitches Thrown) of at least 64%
Swinging Strike % (Swinging Strikes / Strikes) of at least 15%
So what did I do once I settled on the parameters? I have the traditional, batted ball, and pitch data stats for the last three years for each of the last three seasons saved in an Excel file. First, I looked at the 378 pitcher seasons in which the pitcher faced at least 500 batters in a single season in the three years. Next, I looked at the 380 pitchers who faced a total of at least 500 batters total in the three seasons.
The following shows how the single season pitchers fared in each category (the number meaning the number of categories in which the pitcher exceeded the minimum):
Five – 22 Pitchers – 4,654 IP – 3.54 ERA – 3.53 FIP ERA
Four – 53 Pitchers – 10,396 IP – 3.62 ERA – 3.57 FIP ERA
Three - 60 Pitchers – 11,355 IP – 4.00 ERA – 3.99 FIP ERA
Two - 65 Pitchers – 11,622 IP – 4.49 ERA – 4.37 FIP ERA
One - 110 Pitchers – 18,373 IP – 4.70 ERA – 4.65 FIP ERA
Zero - 68 Pitchers – 11,354 IP – 4.88 ERA – 4.94 FIP ERA
And the same stats for the 3-year pitchers:
Five - 21 Pitchers – 8,405 IP – 3.45 ERA – 3.46 FIP ERA
Four - 50 Pitchers – 15,095 IP – 3.51 ERA – 3.55 FIP ERA
Three - 64 Pitchers – 16,526 IP – 4.02 ERA – 4.03 FIP ERA
Two - 91 Pitchers – 23,011 IP – 4.43 ERA – 4.41 FIP ERA
One - 91 Pitchers – 26,675 IP – 4.70 ERA – 4.62 FIP ERA
Zero - 63 Pitchers – 18,427 IP – 4.86 ERA – 4.89 FIP ERA
What I liked about the above was the consistency of the ERA and FIP ERA between the 3-year and single year stats.
Onto some other stats:
75 single season (SS) pitchers met at least four of the stat criteria. Of these 75 pitchers, 69 (92%) finished with an ERA below 4.50, and all of them finished with a FIP ERA of 4.43 or lower. 56 of the 75 (75%) finished with an ERA of less than 4.00, while 65 (87%) finished with a sub 4.00 FIP ERA.
71 three-year (3Y) pitchers met at least four of the stat criteria. Of these 71 pitchers, 67 (94%) finished with an ERA below 4.50, and all of them finished with a FIP ERA of 4.30 or lower. 58 of the 71 (82%) finished with an ERA of less than 4.00, while 64 (90%) finished with a sub 4.00 FIP ERA.
How about the inverse?
178 (SS) pitchers met only one or none of the stat criteria. Of these 178 pitchers, 114 (64%) finished with an ERA above 4.50, and 121 (69%) finished with a FIP ERA of 4.50 or higher. 71 of the 178 (40%) finished with an ERA of at least 5.00, while 49 (28%) finished with a FIP ERA of 5.00 or higher.
154 (3Y) pitchers met only one or none of the stat criteria. Of these 154 pitchers, 104 (68%) finished with an ERA above 4.50, and 98 (64%) finished with a FIP ERA of 4.50 or higher. 66 of the 154 (43%) finished with an ERA of at least 5.00, while 41 (27%) finished with a FIP ERA of 5.00 or higher.
Food for thought.
Here’s hoping everyone has a great 2008.
Thank you
