Second Half Pitching Expectations?
First, here’s the link to my most recent article on OH. It basically talks about what to expect from the pitching staff during the second half. Unfortunately, one of my comments about Chris Britton proved to be prescient.
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Miguel Tejada Missing Protection?
Jim Palmer made comments the other night about Miguel Tejada’s production being hurt by not having the “protection” of Jay Gibbons behind. This, of course, brings up the long time discussion on whether protection a lineup really exists.
Is the whole protection thing a myth? I have no idea, I’ll let people who are a heckuva lot smarter than me figure that one out. My guess is that, like a lot of these types of arguments, the truth lies somewhere in between.
Some additional info on Tejada. The following is the percentage of flyballs hit by him that became HRs:
2002: 16.7
2003: 13.4
2004: 16.7
2005: 13.6
2006: 19.3
And before someone chimes in with something along the lines of “he’s probably hitting more infield flyballs,” nope, his IFFB% (the percentage of flyballs that are popups) is at its lowest since they started tracking the data. His IFFB% the last three years has consistently been about 12%, this year it is at 5.7%.
So why is he hitting fewer home runs? Pretty simple answer actually – he’s hitting fewer flyballs. Exhibit A would be his GB/FB rate:
2002: 1.29
2003: 1.26
2004: 1.36
2005: 1.41
2006: 1.98
Exhibit B would be his GB% versus his FB%:
2002: 45.2 / 35.1
2003: 44.1 / 34.9
2004: 46.5 / 34.2
2005: 47.2 / 33.4
2006: 51.6 / 26.1
The above numbers also account at least partially for the increase in DPs from Tejada.
Is he now getting fewer good pitches to hit? There’s a stat we can look at to maybe get an idea about this. His LD% between 2002 and 2005 was between 19.2% and 20.9% each year (and was at 19.2% and 19.4% in his two years in Baltimore). This year, his LD% is 22.3%. These numbers seem to indicate that he hasn’t been pitched around as a whole this season.
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Torii Hunter Interview
Did anyone else hear the Torii Hunter interview on the John Thompson Show?
What a pleasant, well spoken man. He is also extremely passionate about the game of baseball. In case you can’t tell, I was impressed.
The reason for the interview is that he’s concerned about the low percentage of African-American baseball players in MLB. So he’s trying to do something about it. They didn’t get into specifics, but apparently he’s recruiting African-American players to represent different teams of young players in a baseball jamboree next June. Each young player who participates will be put up in a nice hotel and will be shown “the good life.” He wants to show them the upside of being a MLB player.
As someone who believes in the value of numbers I can see the arguments against having him on a team. After hearing his interview, I can now see the definite positives (primarily in the form of his passion) to having him on a team.
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The Nationals / Reds Trade
Jim Bowden has been the butt of quite a few jokes (goodness knows he’s given me plenty of laughs). If this is the type of trade made by “joke GM’s”, I certainly wish the Orioles’ GM were a joke (be easy now).
Analysts are saying some surprisingly good things about Gary Majewski. Why? A pitcher with his numbers can normally expect to have an ERA in the mid 4’s range. In his career, only 4.7% of all flyballs have become HR’s (roughly 10-11% is normal) – I don’t suppose RFK has helped him there. You’d be hard pressed to find another pitcher more likely to see a pretty good sized increase in ERA.
Austin Kearns seems to be one of those guys who is either overrated or underrated, but mostly underrated of late. The Fielding Bible rates him pretty highly. “Kearns is an excellent defender and the best defensive outfielder on the Reds. He has very good range, takes good routes on the ball and has a very strong arm. He has enough range to play centerfield if necessary and his arm is good enough to play in right.” Me thinks Bowden just found his replacement for Soriano and/or Guillen.
As good as the Spears/whoever for Patterson trade has been for the Orioles thus far, this trade has the potential to be an even better one for the Nationals.
